Last week, we took a look Bill James’ projections for some of the Pirates’ offensive players. Here’s how the Bucs’ pitchers are predicted to perform in 2013:
| W | L | SV | G | GS | IP | ERA | FIP | |
| A.J. Burnett | 11 | 13 | 0 | 32 | 32 | 209 | 4.05 | 4.09 |
| Chris Resop | 4 | 4 | 0 | 61 | 0 | 72 | 3.75 | 3.52 |
| James McDonald | 9 | 10 | 0 | 31 | 31 | 172 | 3.87 | 4.06 |
| Jared Hughes | 4 | 5 | 0 | 67 | 0 | 76 | 4.14 | 3.83 |
| Jeff Karstens | 6 | 6 | 0 | 24 | 16 | 105 | 3.86 | 3.96 |
| Joel Hanrahan | 3 | 3 | 40 | 59 | 0 | 57 | 3.63 | 3.61 |
| Tony Watson | 4 | 3 | 0 | 71 | 0 | 58 | 3.26 | 3.81 |
| Wandy Rodriguez | 11 | 11 | 0 | 32 | 32 | 206 | 3.80 | 3.79 |
* This is under the assumption that most of these players will be back in 2013. Burnett and Rodriguez have guaranteed contracts. Watson and Hughes are still pre-arbitration eligible and should be in the bullpen again. Hanrahan, Karstens, Resop, and McDonald are eligible for arbitration.
A few quick notes…
- A.J. Burnett is projected to regress a bit after his bounce back 2012 season.
- Chris Resop and Tony Watson are expected to pitch similarly to past performances out of the ‘pen, while Jared Hughes‘ ERA is expected to be 4+.
- James McDonald, who had the same number of innings pitched (171) and ERA (4.21) in 2011 and 2012, is predicted to lower his earned run average a bit and also throw one more inning.
- James has Joel Hanrahan‘s ERA jumping up to a concerning 3.63, but sees him reaching the 40 save plateau once again.
- If the Bucs decide to tender Jeff Karstens, he’ll be expected to pitch 105 innings between the rotation and bullpen (16 starts out of 24 games).
- Wandy Rodriguez, last year’s trade deadline acquisition, is projected to produce a reasonable 11-11 record and 3.80 ERA.
These are pretty moderate projections; nothing to get too excited about. However, they are just predictions after all, so they could be very far from true.
124 days until Opening Day.
Go Bucs
