The Diminishing Power of Corey Hart

corey hart pirates

Corey Hart is one of the new faces in Pirate camp this year, and, well, it feels kinda weird. Hart was a member of the Milwaukee teams that annually torched the Bucs of the late-2000’s, so the immediate memories of him aren’t particularly fond. Moreover, he’s coming off the worst season of his career — a .203/.271/.319 showing in Seattle, featuring only 6 home runs and a 70 wRC+ in 68 games.

However, it really wasn’t that long ago that Hart was hitting the ball as far as some of the biggest boppers in all of baseball. Take a look at where he ranked on home run & fly ball distance over the years, via Baseball Heat Maps:

Year Average Distance MLB
2010 308.4 17th
2011 313.72 2nd
2012 302.62 12th
2013 -  -
2014 281.76 119th

Knee surgeries — on both right and left — forced him to miss the entire 2013 season. His right knee caused him trouble again in 2014, landing him on the disabled list for a month late in the year. Hart’s aching legs cost him a lot of baseball the past two years, and there’s reason to believe it sapped his power as well. His home run to fly ball ratio in 2014 was his worst ever and a steep decline from previous seasons:

Year HR/FB
2010 16.8%
2011 19.7%
2012 18.1%
2013 -
2014 8.0%

When looking at his average fly ball distance above, that makes sense. A move from hitter-friendly Miller Park to pitcher-friendly Safeco Field likely played a role, but the injury problems shouldn’t be ignored.

Here’s a visual look at his fly ball/home run power over the past five years…

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How Every Pirates Starter Gets a Ground Ball

aj burnett francisco liriano

By now, everyone knows the Pirates have placed an emphasis on getting ground balls from their pitchers. They’ve led the league in ground ball rate two consecutive seasons, featuring a staff full of above-average worm killers.

But how exactly do they induce these ground balls? Which pitches and in which locations give them an edge? Here’s a look at what the (projected) starting five did in 2014 — whether it be a groundout, ground into double play, or ground ball single; split by batter handedness (LHH on the left; RHH on the right)…

Francisco Liriano

francisco liriano ground ball pitcher

Two Seam 37%
Change 30%
Slider 25%
Four Seam 8%

When Liriano’s not making batters whiff, he’s making them put the ball on the turf. He loves his changeup (red dots) and slider (purple) for whiffs and grounders alike, while his two seam fastball/sinker (blue) is also particularly effective. There’s a ton of action low and away to right-handed batters; all of his stuff works down there, like this sinker that runs away from Peter Bourjos:

francisco liriano two seam

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Pirates Grapefruit Report: Week 3

mckechnie field

We’re reaching the very dull phase of spring training, where players and fans alike are wishing for real games that count. Alas, here’s what happened in the Grapefruit League over the past week, in case you were busy watching college basketball…

Tuesday, 3/17 – Astros 13, Pirates 7

Jeff Locke obliterated for six runs in three innings. The offense got going for seven runs — their best since the Grapefruit opener — but it obviously wasn’t enough. Neil Walker went deep to the right-center boardwalk.


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2015 Pittsburgh Pirates Composite Projections – Pitchers

Earlier this week, we posted some offensive projections for the 2015 Pirates. Here are the pitching forecasts, a combination of Steamer, ZiPS, and Clay Davenport systems. Interpret them as you wish…


pittsburgh pirates projections 2015 starting pitchers


pittsburgh pirates projections 2015 relief pitchers

Pick six, plus loser of Locke/Worley… Keep in mind, Hughes and Holdzkom have minor league options remaining.


pittsburgh pirates projections 2015 depth pitchers

Go Bucs

2015 Pittsburgh Pirates Composite Projections – Batters

We’re now within three weeks of Opening Day. Here’s a look at some of the Pirates’ offensive projections for 2015 — a combination of Steamer, ZiPS, and Clay Davenport forecasts. These do not account for playing time, so keep that in mind for the bench and depth players. I’ll post the pitching projections later this week.

Starting Lineup

pittsburgh pirates projections 2015 starting lineup


pittsburgh pirates projections 2015 bench


pittsburgh pirates projections 2015 depth

Go Bucs