FanGraphs’ 2014 Projected Standings & Playoff Probabilites

Clint Hurdle Pirates

FanGraphs recently released some new projected standings and playoff probabilities for 2014. Here’s the methodology:


“To generate the playoff odds we simulate each season 10,000 times.

FanGraphs Projections Mode

This mode uses a combination of Steamer and ZiPS projections and the FanGraphs Depth Charts to calculate the winning percentage of each remaining game in the major league season.”


And here is how the computer systems see the NL Central shaking out:

Expected W Expected L Playoff Odds
Cardinals 88.9 73.1 78.2%
Pirates 83.9 78.1 48.8%
Brewers 78.1 83.9 17.2%
Reds 76.6 85.4 12.0%
Cubs 72.5 89.5 3.5%

You can check out the rest of the divisions here.

As it stands, the Pirates project to go about 84-78. The totals across the league are pretty conservative (no team projects to win more than 90 or less than 71), so there’s plenty of room for them to outperform (or underperform, I guess) their projection. You could also find a more reasonable prediction by accounting for playing time at each position, which the systems don’t do. Tim Williams calculated this a few weeks back by using ZiPS and found about 88 wins for the Bucs. 

A second place finish would put them in position to compete for a spot in the NL Wild Card game again. With the Braves, Cardinals, and Dodgers predicted to take their respective divisions, here are FanGraphs’ Wild Card odds for the rest of the National League:

WC Odds
Giants 25.6%
Pirates 23.4%
D-Backs 17.4%
Padres 16.3%
Nationals 15.7%
Rockies 15.4%
Brewers 10.3%
Reds 7.5%
Mets 6.1%
Phillies 4.5%
Cubs 2.3%
Marlins 1.5%

Not a bad starting point. Maybe it hasn’t been the best offseason so far… an extra piece or two could push them over the top. But we’ll see what happens. Still work that needs to be done. 

Go Bucs

2 thoughts on “FanGraphs’ 2014 Projected Standings & Playoff Probabilites”

    1. I was wondering this myself, Jerry. I couldn’t find much, at least not what FanGraphs projected. I know Tim calculated 81-84 wins last year ( as opposed to 88 this year, and I think overall the predictions were much lower. That being said, I would guess the playoff projection at this time last year was considerably lower than the 48.8% for 2014.

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